This is purly a Hypothetical Pandemic Virus Outbreak Scenarios that corporations should consider the impacts to your organization and it’s impact on business and IT supporting your business.

Time = Day 0

Your government health agency, in coordination with the World Health Organization (WHO), this morning announced that new outbreaks of the H5N1 virus within the last week in Thailand have been identified as a new highly virulent variant of the H5N1 virus, capable of human-to-human transmission.

More than three dozen cases have been reported, affecting all age groups and seemingly spread among extended families living in the same household. Although no cases of the virus have been reported outside of Thailand, U.S. health officials and hospitals have been notified to be on the alert for patients with severe respiratory symptoms and a history of travel to Thailand.

Cultures have also been sent to your government health agency, so that work can begin to produce an effective vaccine. Vaccine manufacturers have also been placed on alert. In this scenario, the world is currently at WHO Alert Phase 3.

This is a hypothetical situation only.

Time = T + One Month

International news services are reporting outbreaks of the new highly virulent strain of H5N1 in small pockets of China outside Beijing and Shanghai, Ankara Turkey and Baghdad Iraq. Health officials believe the virus most likely spread by ill airline passengers.

Although the virus appears to be confined to only four countries, several major airlines have begun restricting or canceling their international flights.

This is a hypothetical situation only.

Time = T + Two Months.

Pandemic influenza cases have now been confirmed in your region, as well as other major cities throughout your country. Government health officials believe that the virus will spread to the remainder of your country within two months or less. They are emphasizing frequent hand- washing and social distancing as the best preventative measures. Some local health departments in affected areas have begun to distribute antivirals, ensuring that medical personnel and first responders receive priority distribution.

Corporate employees at your location have begun to inquire whether the organization plans to provide antivirals and facemasks to the workforce. Others are asking whether they can work from home until a vaccine is developed. Still others are asking whether Corporate has any plans to test potentially symptomatic employees prior to allowing them to enter corporate work places.

The vaccine is not expected to be available for another two months at the earliest. Even then, supply will be limited to health care providers and other first responders.

This is a hypothetical situation only.

Time = T + Four Months

Thirty-three percent (33%) of corporate employees worldwide have become ill as a result of the pandemic. Absentee rates continue to rise, with only 60-75% of the workforce continuing to report for work in some affected areas. Some locations have already seen a second wave of infections leading to high absenteeism again. Only a small percentage of Corporate’s critical employees are willing to come to work because they are dealing with a sick loved one, they are unable to find child care or simply don’t want to take a chance. Employees in all walks of life admit to being more afraid of catching the virus than of losing their jobs.

Police forces are understaffed and local utility personnel shortages have led ton blackouts and unreliable phone service. The extremely high use of the Internet by other companies’ employees working from home has slowed the Internet to a point where it is virtually unavailable. Higher than expected absenteeism among postal service employees has led to extremely slow mail processing and delivery. Grocery stores are suffering from shortages of food and other basic supplies because of trucker and railroad worker “sick-outs” and travel restrictions.

This is a hypothetical situation only

Time = T + Twelve Months

Infections worldwide have begun to level off and health experts and media commentators are positing that the rate of new infections will continue to decline. A vaccine that is effective on the original strain has been developed and is being distributed globally. However distribution and administration in less industrialized countries is very slow. Based on current infection rates in Asia, there is fear that a second wave of infection will occur within the next few months. It is unknown whether the current vaccine will be completely effective in the next wave.

The current death toll in your country alone stands at approximately 1% of the population.

The toll on the global, country and local economies has been devastating. Global GDP is estimated to be down 5% for the year representing a loss of approximately $800 billion. The travel and resort industries have been hit hardest with many companies declaring bankruptcy. Port and other freight operations have slowed due to worker shortages and severe back-ups for trucking and other intermodal forms of transport. Share prices of most major manufacturing firms – including Corporate – have dropped markedly as a result of the heavy absenteeism rates and inconsistent schedules for critical supply chains.

This is a hypothetical situation only.

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